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The
Bulgarian Economy
Since 1998 real GDP growth has been robust averaging
4.1% despite external shocks. GDP growth in 2003 was 4.5% (e) and is
forecast to be 5.1% in 2004. Bulgaria keeps one of the strongest growth
rates among CEE countries.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2003 amounted to USD 1,360 million
a growth of 54% from 2002, covering more that 90% of the CA deficit
for 2003. Projections for FDI to be attracted in 2004 range within USD
1,500 and 1,600 million.
The unemployment rate fell by 3.5% to 14.5% in 2003 due mainly to the
labour market upswing in the private sector and the broadened scope
of the ongoing active labour market measures.
Government debt currently stands at 47.2% of GDP and is forecast to
drop to 39% in 2006, well within the 60% ceiling set in the Maastricht
criteria.
Annual average inflation in 2003 stood at 2.4%.
Although not required for membership of the European Union Bulgaria
met almost all of the Maastricht criteria in 2003. Meeting
the Copenhagen economic criteria – Bulgaria
has a functioning market economy, able to cope with competitive pressures
within an enlarged Europe in the near term.
Source EBRD (April 2004)
"Bulgaria has the right mix of macroeconomic
policies to continue to enjoy robust growth and macroeconomic stability…
The government's commitment to exercise caution and maintain flexibility
in the conduct of fiscal policy, combined with strong bank supervision,
provide assurance that under adverse scenarios macroeconomic stability
would be safeguarded…" |
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